Neutropenia Prediction Based on First-Cycle Blood Counts Using a FOS-3NN Classifier

Background. Delivery of full doses of adjuvant chemotherapy on schedule is key to optimal breast cancer outcomes. Neutropenia is a serious complication of chemotherapy and a common barrier to this goal, leading to dose reductions or delays in treatment. While past research has observed correlations between complete blood count data and neutropenic events, a reliable method of classifying breast cancer patients into low- and high-risk groups remains elusive. Patients and Methods. Thirty-five patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer under the care of a single oncologist are examined in this study. FOS-3NN stratifies patient risk based on complete blood count data after the first cycle of treatment. All classifications are independent of breast cancer subtype and clinical markers, with risk level determined by the kinetics of patient blood count response to the first cycle of treatment. Results. In an independent test set of patients unseen by FOS-3NN, 19 out of 21 patients were correctly classified (Fisher's exact test probability P < 0.00023 [2 tailed], Matthews' correlation coefficient +0.83). Conclusions. We have developed a model that accurately predicts neutropenic events in a population treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in the first cycle of a 6-cycle treatment.